An Assessment of the Possible Effects of the Regime Change
in Syria in Terms of International Law and Refugee Law

The uprising that began with the Arab Spring has impacted many countries in North Africa and the Middle East, particularly in politics, economy, and law. Syria has also been affected by this process, and the impact of the uprising has lasted much longer there.

The developments in Syria since 2011 have gained importance in terms of international humanitarian law and international human rights law, but have attracted little attention. It should be noted that although the events in Syria are undoubtedly evaluated in terms of international law on armed conflicts, it should be taken into account that the protests and demonstrations that began in the Arab world in early 2010 and later became known as the Arab Spring turned into a long and intense civil war in Syria that lasted until December 2024.

On 27 November 2024, Islamist militant groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched an attack in Syria and captured the cities of Aleppo and Hama. These groups subsequently announced the capture of the capital, Damascus, marking the “end of an era” in Syria. As a result, Bashar al-Assad left the country. Of course, this development can be expected to have consequences in terms of both international and refugee law. Due to the long-standing armed conflict and an intense civil war in the country and the region, millions of people have been forced to leave their homes and live in other countries as asylum seekers, refugees or under temporary protection. In light of these new developments, it is important to discuss the legal status of the new regime and the Syrians who have fled their country.